Prognostic function of management in the economic security of the national economy

Ivanova, Natalia and Іванова, Наталя Сергіївна and Иванова, Наталья Сергеевна (2018) Prognostic function of management in the economic security of the national economy. Торгівля і ринок України (1 (43)). pp. 10-17. ISSN 2079-4762

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Abstract

Objective. The purpose of this article is to study the prognostic function of management in the economic security of the national economy in terms of a regional aspect. Methods. The theoretical base of the research is the achievements of foreign and domestic scientists. The main research results are obtained applying the complex general scientific and special methods of investigation: system approach, structural and logical analysis, analysis and synthesis, techniques of logical generalization Results. As a result of the study on the prognostic function of management in the economic security of the national economy in terms of a regional aspect, the feasibility and necessity of relying on a forecast based on which programs, plans and management decisions are being developed are substantiated. The conclusions are substantiated by the practical realization of the forecast regression model of economic security of the regions, which, according to preliminary calculations, are characterized by the best state of economic security: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa and Kharkiv regions. The predicted values of the components in the forecast model are indicators of socio-economic development and are calculated from the assumption that the trend of their change remains the same as in 2016 relative to 2015. As a result of the implementation of the forecast model, significant negative trends were identified for the reduction of the economic security index: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Odessa regions. The results of the forecast and its visualization allow determining the factors of these negative changes for each region and taking them into account when developing and adjusting existing regional economic development programs. In further research it is expedient to present a concept of forecasting the economic security of the regions in order to ensure the economic security of the national economy.

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